{"id":1018,"date":"2019-03-05T09:22:50","date_gmt":"2019-03-05T17:22:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jahelkarealestategroup.com\/blog\/?p=1018"},"modified":"2019-03-05T09:22:51","modified_gmt":"2019-03-05T17:22:51","slug":"average-home-price-is-down-year-over-year-for-first-time-in-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jahelkarealestategroup.com\/blog\/average-home-price-is-down-year-over-year-for-first-time-in-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Average Home Price Is Down Year-over-year for First Time in Years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Average Home Price Is Down Year-over-year for First Time in Years<\/strong>
<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Single Family Prices and Volume<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

71 single-family homes sold in February, 16 more than the 55 sold in January, but 14 less than the 85 that sold in the same timeframe last year. The average home price increased marginally by 0.32% in February to $546,662 from January\u2019s average of $544,902, however, this figure is almost 1% lower than last February when the average home price was $551,961. The median sale price decreased almost 4% to $515,000 in February from January\u2019s $535,000 and this is also 5.5% lower than the same time frame last year when the median sale price was $545,000. 120 homes were listed in February, which was actually 20% less than the number of homes listed in January, and just over 14% less than the 140 listed in February of 2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insights: It is no surprise to <\/em>see sales volume increase from January as the real estate market awakens from its winter slowdown. What is notable is that single-family sales volume for February was the lowest we have seen in Nanaimo for this month in 5 years. Taken together with January\u2019s subdued sales volume, for the first 2 months of the year volume is down 28% over 2018\u2019s figure. While the average price was essentially unchanged from January, what is interesting to note is that for the first time in a number of years, the year-over-year average home price decreased. No longer can the market report month-over-month decreases, and shine a spotlight on the year-over-year figures, stating \u201cwhile we may be down this month, we are still up X% year-over-year,\u201d claiming that the market is still generally trending upward and the reporting month may be just a temporary blip on a further upward climb. The decline in both month-over-month and year-over-year median home prices is more pronounced, suggesting that more homes sold at lower price points in February. The median figure is important in that it isn\u2019t as affected by a few higher priced sales which can really pull up the average price. Looking at the decrease in listing volume, I\u2019d suggest mother nature had more to do with this than market forces, as significant snowfall and cooler temperatures likely delayed some listings. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strength of the Trend<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Factors we also look at when analyzing a market to validate its strength are sell\/list ratio; sell price; days to sell, and current inventory numbers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sell\/list ratio increased from 37% in January to 59% in February, although this is down from February of 2018 when the ratio was 74%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

February\u2019s sell price\/list price increased to 98% from January\u2019s 96%, however, this figure is down from February 2018 when the sell price\/list price was at 100%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average days on the market decreased more than 25.5% to 32 in February from 43 in January, but this is still 23% higher than February of last year when the average days on the market came in at 26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of the end of February, the number of active listings was 259, down 3% from January\u2019s 268 active listings, however, inventory levels were 23% higher than at the same time last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insights: January was not a great start to the year for the real estate market in Nanaimo. Of the 4 key indicators presented above that we looked at in January (on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis totaling 8 data points), all had deteriorated, some significantly. This month the prognosis is not so grim, as although the year-over-year figures were negative, all of the month-over-month figures improved. What we are seeing here over the past number of months is more of a choppy market, 1 month up, 1 month down type scenario. To me, this suggests that after a number of strong years in the market, we are seeing more of a consolidation pattern, with the market returning to more balanced conditions. While the market is taking a much-needed break after such a strong run, the results we are seeing are not suggesting that a market crash or significant correction is imminent. It is more a reflection of the fact that strong market action experienced over the last number of years was simply not sustainable. There also appears to be more nervousness in the air than we have had for a while in our market. While some of it may be warranted, in the digital world we live in, the media loves to use the shocking stats as \u201cclickbait\u201d, so please take the time to read what is behind the headlines. Given the uncertainty in the market, please stay tuned, as it will be important to closely monitor market conditions as we head into what is traditionally the busier spring months to get a better indication of the true state of the market.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Top Performing Neighbourhoods & Categories <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

9 of the 18 sub-areas defined by the real estate board in Nanaimo saw an increase in the average selling price (trailing 12 months) from January to February, with 16 of the 18 also experiencing increased prices year-over-year. When looking at these neighbourhood figures, it is important to note that we use trailing 12-month figures to limit volatility caused by lower transaction volumes in some neighbourhoods, where a few high priced or low priced transactions could tremendously skew results. A trailing 12 figure will always be slower to react than simple month-over-month, so that is why the results here are not going to be as pronounced as the figures used in the stats we report above. This also explains why we reported in the previous section that year-over-year, the average home price has decreased, and then report in this section that 16 of 18 neighbourhoods are up – it is simply different reporting periods, as the year-over-year figure from a year ago that we are comparing against this year\u2019s trailing-12 figure also incorporates the previous 12 month\u2019s results into the average. Moving on, these year-over-year average price changes range from -4.63% in Upper Lantzville to 16.64% in Pleasant Valley, and while Upper Lantzville has replaced South Jingle Pot in the low spot, Pleasant Valley has topped the chart since August 2018. The top riser month-over-month was Lower Lantzville with Brechin Hill the second highest. Top performers year-over-year were Pleasant Valley, Diver Lake, Extension, and Central Nanaimo. Looking at volume, 7 of the 18 sub-areas saw increases month-over-month with North Jingle Pot and Cedar the top risers, while North Jingle Pot and Diver Lake were the only neighbourhoods to experience increases both monthly and annually, with North\u2019s Jingle Pot\u2019s results likely stemming from new homes being built and sold in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insights: As alluded to above, the trailing 12-month figures are not telling the whole story, as these averages are still benefiting from the stronger months that were experienced at certain points throughout 2018. With a bit of a lag here on the trailing 12-month figures, we are starting to see more neighbourhoods<\/g> reporting periods that show month-over-month average price decreases. The areas that are still showing strength are primarily the more affordable neighbourhoods, as a fair contingent of buyers have been priced out of the highest priced neighbourhoods<\/g>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On low volume, lots were the only category that saw a decrease in average sale price from January to February, while only apartments and townhomes saw increases year-over-year. In fact, looking at both month-over-month and year-over-year figures townhomes was the top riser in terms of averages price increases. Single-family homes and townhouses were the only categories to experience month-over-month increases in sales volume, with no categories seeing sales volume increases year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Insights: These are affordability challenges on display, with apartment-style condos, townhouses, and patio homes all up month-over-month, and condos and townhomes up year-over-year. What do you do when you are priced out of the single-family home market? Sit on the sidelines and hope that prices come down, or alternatively, buy a townhome which offers many of the same benefits (without the maintenance requirements) at a more affordable price point. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opportunities <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From our perspective, we see the market increasingly moving towards more balanced market conditions. Pent-up buyer demand has dissipated, either being satisfied by increasing inventory levels, reduced based on government intervention (speculation tax, etc.), stricter lending requirements, higher interest rates, or investors recognizing that the opportunity to acquire cash flowing residential property in the area is now pretty much impossible. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For buyers, what<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>his means is<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hat discerning buyers who were<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>atient<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hrough<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he heights of<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he market craziness will now have more<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>election. The continued decline in<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ales volume further<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>upports<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>his<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>oint as more<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>roperties are sitting on the market, so<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ellers<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>n<\/g><\/em>eeding to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ell are going to be<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>g<\/g><\/em>etting increasingly anxious and may be<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>r<\/g><\/em>ipe for reasonable<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>rice concessions. If you are looking at homes above $800,000, you should be in an even better position to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>n<\/g><\/em>egotiate as<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he higher end of<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he market has slowed to a<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>n<\/g><\/em>ear crawl. In February only 5 homes sold above $800,000. When you consider<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hat<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>here are 102 homes<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>c<\/g><\/em>urrently on the market<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>riced above $800,000, at<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>his<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>r<\/g><\/em>ate you<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>h<\/g><\/em>ave more<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>han 20 month\u2019s<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>upply, and this is before<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he traditionally busier spring listing<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>eason. With<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hat<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>aid, we<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ee<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he $800k+ market likely getting worse before it gets better. On the demand side, the cooling lower mainland market and intensified media coverage of the slowdown is making lower mainland buyers fearful of buying, and the foreign buyers\u2019 tax and speculation tax has nearly killed demand from foreign buyers. When you look at who<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>w<\/g><\/em>as gobbling up<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he higher priced homes at<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he peak of<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>his<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>c<\/g><\/em>ycle, much of it was<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>m<\/g><\/em>ainland and foreign buyers who had the income levels to finance or<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he cash required to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>urchase<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hese higher priced properties. When you remove<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he out-of-town buyers, local buyers simply can\u2019t<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>upport<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he current<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>rice levels. Looking at the supply side, contributing to what we feel will be some pain here is the fact that increasingly you have the largest block of our population (aging baby boomers) who are living in these $800,000+ homes and are looking to downsize in the coming years. This will likely only lead to an increase in the<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>upply of homes<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>riced towards<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he top end of<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he market. So with<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he expectation of increased<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>upply, and constrained demand resulting in lower<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ales volumes for higher-priced homes, what happens from here? Either<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ellers are going to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>h<\/g><\/em>ave to adjust<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>heir expectations and<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>e<\/g><\/em>ither price below the competition or be open to significant<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>rice concessions in order to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>ell. Ultimately, the probable outcome is that the gap closes between the price for the average home and homes at the higher end of the market, as demand should remain relatively strong at the lower end of the market as our population continues to increase, and people need somewhere to live. On that note, if you are looking at a more affordable<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>rice<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>oint (below $600,000) and waiting for prices to<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>d<\/g><\/em>rop, in our view it is quite<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>robable<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>hat it will<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>n<\/g><\/em>ever<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>m<\/g><\/em>aterialize. While<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he average home<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>rice in Nanaimo may decrease in the coming years, it is likely going to be a result of not as many homes<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>elling at<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he higher end of the market, not homes at more affordable price levels decreasing in value. No matter your scenario, to maximize your potential savings, ensure when selecting a Realtor that they have the proven negotiating skills and market expertise to be able to put together a strong business case to support getting you the very best price in this shifting market. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>h<\/g><\/em>ave been following our market updates, you know that in this<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>s<\/g><\/em>egment for<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he better part of<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>t<\/g><\/em>he<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>p<\/g><\/em>ast few years our commentary has become<\/g><\/em> <\/g><\/em>q<\/g><\/em>uite repetitive\u2026\u201c the opportunity is clearly on the sell side\u201d. At this stage, we are fairly confident this ship has sailed unless you are fortunate enough to own a property that will be in high demand for downsizing baby boomers such as ranchers, patio homes, and lifestyle properties at a reasonable price level in close proximity to the ocean, marinas, or golf courses.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While sellers may have missed the top of this market cycle, life circumstances will continue to drive sellers to list their homes. With more listings currently on the market and fewer buyers, it is all the more vital that the home is priced accurately and competitively to maximize exposure when interest is the highest. So if you are listing, selecting a Realtor with a strong marketing platform and an active approach to marketing your home is becoming increasingly important. While we went through a period for the last few years where a For Sale sign and an MLS listing were enough to entice buyers to write an offer (definitely not our approach), in this market that haphazard approach is simply not going to cut it. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For investors, on the buy side, patience is going to be rewarded. If you are considering an income property, you are likely best served by looking at other markets or waiting it out as there is no way you are going to cash flow on a leveraged purchase. Given what we have outlined above, we would not recommend speculating on further price appreciation with a negative cash flow property in this market. For multi-family investors, cap rates are at historic lows and therefore valuations at all-time highs. Factoring in the significant number of purpose-built rental apartment buildings currently in the development permitting or building permitting stage, the increased supply of rental units in the coming years is going to potentially put downward pressure on rental rates, and push up vacancy rates which are already starting to increase. While expectations are that further interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future, rates are still below historic norms, so it is likely that before too long we will continue the climb to a more normalized interest rate environment. When that happens, eventually cap rates will start to see a similar increase towards more normalized levels. Without the upward pressure on rents, this is setting the stage for decreasing values. We\u2019ve not exactly described the ideal conditions for investment. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember, over time real estate generally appreciates. We just know there are peaks and valleys. Buy on the way to the peak and you are positioning yourself for success, buy on the way to the valley, not so much. It is our mandate to provide you with information that you can use to determine which side of the peak we are on, and ultimately to help you make informed decisions that you will not regret. On that note, a word of caution: Be very careful where you get your information on the real estate market. The reality is most who are providing an opinion (us included), have their income level influenced by the real estate market and therefore have a vested interest in keeping this juggernaut going. There were sponsored social media ads in our market early in 2019 claiming \u201cthe Nanaimo market is just heating up.\u201d Be cautious\u2026 watch the headlines\u2026Make sure you get the full story\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a consultation specific to your situation, or if you have any questions about market conditions, please contact us at info@jahelkagroup.com and we would be happy to help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the Nanaimo Market Statistics Here: Monthly Statistics February 2019.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: VIREB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Average Home Price Is Down Year-over-year for First Time in Years Single Family Prices and Volume 71 single-family homes sold in February, 16 more than the 55 sold in January, … [read more<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":502,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nanaimo","tag-market-update"],"yoast_head":"\nAverage Home Price Is Down Year-over-year for First Time in Years - Jahelka Real Estate Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jahelkarealestategroup.com\/blog\/average-home-price-is-down-year-over-year-for-first-time-in-years\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Average Home Price Is Down Year-over-year for First Time in Years - 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